Description

This analysis provides a forecast of DIA prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.284659 0.320353 0.360752 0.410281 0.469944 0.540249 0.630506
2025-03-23 0.246595 0.290975 0.344810 0.416151 0.510156 0.632745 0.809985
2025-03-30 0.215157 0.262711 0.323410 0.408781 0.529629 0.701225 0.977129
2025-04-06 0.192488 0.241816 0.307548 0.404918 0.551971 0.778253 1.182890
2025-04-13 0.167146 0.214170 0.278757 0.378073 0.535446 0.793085 1.295310
2025-04-20 0.152988 0.200173 0.267112 0.374332 0.553646 0.869124 1.552577
2025-04-27 0.140312 0.186896 0.254853 0.367687 0.565828 0.938796 1.836045
2025-05-04 0.133201 0.180930 0.252742 0.376920 0.607694 1.079010 2.376389
2025-05-11 0.125266 0.172936 0.246538 0.378308 0.635694 1.202097 2.981684
2025-05-18 0.117013 0.163704 0.237349 0.373099 0.649864 1.300848 3.621522
2025-05-25 0.107166 0.151200 0.221613 0.353880 0.631287 1.314007 3.979463
2025-06-01 0.099374 0.141412 0.209571 0.340116 0.622107 1.350481 4.499819
2025-06-08 0.097269 0.141460 0.215712 0.365334 0.715212 1.750889 7.924418
2025-06-15 0.092767 0.137125 0.213691 0.374164 0.774098 2.104656 13.088380
2025-06-22 0.087126 0.130354 0.206495 0.370947 0.801887 2.381960 20.344834
2025-06-29 0.082384 0.124727 0.200809 0.370149 0.837363 2.740369 35.583133
2025-07-06 0.075726 0.115238 0.186856 0.348398 0.804579 2.756694 45.206381
2025-07-13 0.071936 0.110565 0.181778 0.346655 0.834389 3.146844 93.443314
2025-07-20 0.068199 0.105708 0.175858 0.341976 0.853922 3.523356 223.593857
2025-07-27 0.066169 0.103798 0.175637 0.351411 0.927215 4.418993 2829.775616
2025-08-03 0.063624 0.100739 0.172749 0.353583 0.976295 5.288936 NaN
2025-08-10 0.060759 0.096881 0.167829 0.349587 1.000530 6.038427 NaN
2025-08-17 0.057056 0.091216 0.158619 0.332603 0.965142 6.082274 NaN